Long-Term Chart of $SPX - Part III

I have been looking at some longer term charts again, now that my target on my previous post has been met.

The first chart is a weekly chart of the $SPX and shows that we just broke the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. The target for full extension is just above the previous high, so I am anticipating a struggle in the same area as looking at the left of the chart shows some importance. If the previous high of around 1220 can't be broken then I have a kind of Doom's Day scenario on the last chart.

Weekly


Zooming out to look at a monthly chart looks quite bullish as well. However, it also depends on breaking that 1220 area. A break and retest for confirmation would be great! The pattern that I am looking at here is a Cup & Handle. I like this pattern a lot because we have a bullish scenario on the weekly, within a bullish scenario on the monthly. This could be explosive and that is why a target of 1800ish is not out of the question. Sure, it would take quite a while and could be rocky along the way.

Monthly


Now, if the above patterns fail I will just short until the end of the world because my target for a Doom's Day scenario is sometime in November/December 2012.

Monthly - Doom's Day


UPDATE: I forgot to mention what the good scenario target was on this chart. It coincides with the target of the break of the Cup & Handle, but the fibs are drawn differently. This time, the fibs are drawn from the high to the low (2007-2009). You can see that price is currently consolidating with the RZ. A break to the top means that the top of the Cup & Handle gets broken, but price also get out of the RZ. That could be a powerful move up.

A break down out of the RZ is more of a long shot after analyzing all of the bullish patterns within bullish patterns that could lead price upwards.

020510 - V

V gapped up a little bit and immediately sold off before rebounding and making new highs. I was thinking it might set up long, but price couldn't hold 50%. Once price dropped through the 50% level and consolidated I got short. My trigger bar was green, but I liked that it was NRIB in the lower half of the morning's range.

011110 - AAPL

AAPL gapped up and sold off right from the start. The selling persisted for about 45 minutes until price finally pulled back, but was too weak to pull back very far and stopped at the 25% Fib Retracement. Price printed offsetting bars and I shorted below the low of the 11:05 AM bar. It went in my favor and inched it's way down all day until finally tagging my target (lower gray line).



I have made some highlight marks on the chart where it makes new lows for the day. In that past, when price broke the low of the day it would continue to fall, but not anymore. I have come to expect quite a bit of volatility from larger names like AAPL because of "High Frequency Trading" algorithms buying new lows and shaking people out. This type of trade has been taking a long time to play out because of this.

090809 - ABX

ABX gapped up, but started to selloff after several days of strength. The chart below depicts a simple analysis using higher highs/higher lows and lower highs/lower lows.

090309 - ARO

I didn't do any scans this morning, so I had to get my WL from CNBC. It was short, just ARO and FDO.

ARO was not ideal, but it ended up being a good trade. There was initial strength followed by an orderly pullback ending with a hammer. I traded above the hammer and exited at the ORH. Had I tried to hold on for more I would have been worn out and probably exited near the same price later on. It ended up hitting the target at the end of the day, but without me.

I also had a couple scalps in FDO, but not worth posting.

090209 - ABX

ABX was one of the trades I had today. I have updated the chart to show the rest of the trading session, but don't have the energy to write my analysis. 00NR7 had a similar trade if you want to read some analysis.

090109 - COH

COH was one of my trades from yesterday. It gapped up and showed some strength initially, but struggled to get above the ORH where it formed a double top and inverted hammer. I shorted on a break of the low of that candle (blue arrow). My target was the blue horizontal line.



I am using a new charting package that allows me to implement a lot of the code I have written. It was too hard to convert to eSignal, so I decided to cancel my subscription. Their horrible customer service played a role in that decision as well.

Anyway, it is more difficult to draw arrows, so my posts from now on will be pretty basic. I will explain my entries and exits in the analysis.